When Federal Funding Disappears: A Survivable Scenario with Community Consequences

How losing $2M in federal support ripples through the community
Hypothetical Small Business CDFI
$85M
Portfolio
760
Active Loans
$40M
FY24 Lending
165
New Loans
$250K
Avg Size
The Bottom Line
Losing $2M in federal grants forces this CDFI to replace free money with market-rate debt, nearly doubling their cost of capital from 2.44% to 4.73%. That 2.29% increase means borrowers pay an extra $5,725 annually on a typical $250K loan—often the difference between expanding and surviving.

Current State

With federal support intact
Bank CRA Loans
5-year, below market
$35M
@ 4.5%
Foundation PRIs
10-year patient capital
$20M
@ 2.0%
CDFI Fund Awards
Unrestricted grants
$15M
@ 0%
State/Local Grants
Program funding
$5M
@ 0%
Earned Revenue
Retained earnings
$10M
@ 0%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
2.44%
Enables 5.5% loans to borrowers

After $2M Federal Cut

Forced to find replacement capital
Bank CRA Loans
Same (for now)
$35M
@ 4.5%
Foundation PRIs
Can't increase
$20M
@ 2.0%
CDFI Fund Awards
Reduced
$13M
@ 0%
→ New Bank Debt
Market-rate
$2M
@ 8.5%
State/Local Grants
Unchanged
$5M
@ 0%
Earned Revenue
Under pressure
$10M
@ 0%
New Cost of Capital
4.73%
+2.29% = 7.8% borrower rates

What This Means for Communities

Childcare Center
Maria's $250K loan jumps from $1,146 to $1,623/month. That extra $5,725/year was her new teacher's salary.
CDFI Operations
Must charge 7.8% vs 5.5%, or cut technical assistance from 15 to 8 hours per borrower.
Lost Opportunities
30% of borrowers no longer qualify. $12M less lending means 48 businesses don't get funded.